Antioch Real Estate Insights - September 2024
Welcome to the Monthly Real Estate Insights for Antioch, CA, for September 2024. This report focuses on the latest trends and data for single-family residences in the city. As the real estate market continues to evolve, it’s crucial for home buyers, sellers, and real estate professionals to stay informed about these shifts. In this update, we’ll explore the relationship between buyer and seller scores, highlight key changes over the past month, and provide insights on what to expect in the coming 30 days.
Key Takeaways
Market Index Score: 55 (Still a strong seller’s market but showing signs of balance)
Median List Price: $675,000 (A slight decrease from last month’s $678,944)
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate: 6.2% (A key factor influencing buyer affordability)
Key Trends and Analysis
Market Index Score Explained
The Market Index Score is a critical measure of the market's balance between buyers and sellers. It is based on a scale from 0 to 100, with a higher score favoring sellers and a lower score favoring buyers. A score of 50 represents a perfectly balanced market where neither buyers nor sellers have a clear advantage.
Current Market Index Score: 55
Previous Month's Score: 58
The Market Index score has decreased slightly from 58 to 55, indicating that the Antioch market, while still favoring sellers, is gradually moving toward a more balanced state. This shift suggests that buyers are gaining a bit more leverage as inventory increases and homes stay on the market longer.
Analysis of Current Market Data
Median List Price: The median list price for homes in Antioch is $675,000, down slightly from $678,944 the previous month. This marginal decrease suggests that sellers are adjusting their pricing expectations in response to the changing market dynamics and higher interest rates.
Median Price of New Listings: New listings have a median price of $643,000, up from $599,000 last month. This increase reflects a trend where sellers of newly listed homes are aiming for higher prices, possibly due to the strength of the seller’s market in the past few months.
Average Days on Market: Homes are now staying on the market for an average of 68 days, compared to 72 days last month. This slight decrease in days on market indicates that while homes are still taking time to sell, there is some renewed buyer activity as they become more active before the end of the year.
Median Days on Market: The median days on market have dropped from 35 to 28 days, signaling that well-priced homes are moving faster, while homes priced too aggressively may take longer to sell.
Median Rent: Rental prices have seen a slight increase, rising from $2,995 to $3,000. This shows that demand for rental properties remains strong, likely driven by buyers opting to rent due to higher mortgage rates.
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers
For Sellers: The Antioch real estate market still favors sellers, but the slight cooling suggests that pricing strategies need to be carefully considered. Homes that are competitively priced are selling more quickly, as indicated by the reduction in median days on market. However, sellers should be aware that as inventory increases and mortgage rates remain high, buyers may become more selective. If a home is on the market for an extended period, sellers might need to adjust their pricing to meet buyer expectations.
For Buyers: Buyers are gaining a bit more leverage as the market begins to cool. With homes staying on the market longer and inventory increasing, buyers have more options and room for negotiation. However, the continued rise in mortgage rates (currently at 6.2%) means that affordability remains a challenge. Buyers should be ready to act quickly on well-priced homes but may find more opportunities for negotiation, particularly with properties that have been listed for longer periods.
Comparison to Previous Month
When comparing the data to August 2024, several trends emerge:
Median List Price: The median list price has decreased slightly from $678,944 to $675,000, reflecting a minor adjustment as sellers respond to market conditions.
Median Price of New Listings: The price of new listings has increased from $599,000 to $643,000, suggesting that sellers are still testing the market with higher prices, particularly for homes with desirable features or in prime locations.
Average Days on Market: The average days on market have decreased from 72 to 68, indicating that while the market is cooling, homes are still selling at a reasonable pace.
Median Days on Market: The median days on market dropped from 35 to 28 days, showing that competitively priced homes are still selling quickly.
Median Rent: Rental prices have increased slightly from $2,995 to $3,000, demonstrating continued demand for rental properties, likely driven by would-be buyers who are priced out of the market due to high mortgage rates.
These trends suggest that while the market remains favorable for sellers, buyers are gaining some negotiating power, and the market may continue to move toward a more balanced state.
Future Outlook
Buyer and Seller Scores
Over the next 30 days, the market in Antioch is expected to continue trending toward more balance between buyers and sellers. The current Market Index score of 55 suggests that while sellers still hold an advantage, the growing inventory and longer days on market give buyers more choices and negotiating power. Sellers will need to remain strategic with their pricing, especially if inventory continues to rise and buyer demand slows.
Interest Rates
The current 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 6.2% is a key factor influencing the market. Higher rates are making homeownership less affordable, which may result in slower sales and more homes staying on the market longer. If rates remain high or increase further, we may see the market shift more in favor of buyers as demand slows. Conversely, if rates drop, we could see a resurgence in buyer activity, particularly among first-time buyers who have been waiting for more affordable financing options.
Other Factors
Seasonal Trends: As we move into the fall season, the real estate market typically experiences a slowdown. Buyers and sellers who are motivated to close deals before the end of the year may be more willing to negotiate, leading to a more balanced market.
Economic Conditions: Broader economic factors, such as inflation, employment rates, and consumer confidence, will also play a significant role in shaping the Antioch real estate market over the next few months. If the economy remains stable, demand for homes should remain consistent, but any economic uncertainty could lead to more cautious buyers and slower sales.
Interesting Fact
An interesting fact about the current Antioch real estate market that hasn’t received much attention is the significant rise in new listing prices. Despite the overall cooling of the market, the median price of new listings jumped from $599,000 to $643,000 in just one month. This trend suggests that sellers are still confident in the strength of the market, especially for homes with desirable features. However, as the market continues to cool, this confidence may be tested, and sellers may need to adjust their expectations if buyer demand weakens.
This report provides a snapshot of the Antioch real estate market as it stands today, geared toward helping you understand the dynamics at play. Changes from the previous month and year-to-date comparisons highlight the ongoing shifts in the market, emphasizing the importance of being well-informed in today's market conditions. For any questions or assistance with your real estate needs, don't hesitate to reach out to a Real Estate Professional at Realty One Elite.
Stay informed, stay ahead, and let's navigate the Antioch real estate market together.
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