Contra Costa County Real Estate Insights – December 2024

Staying on top of the latest real estate trends in Contra Costa County isn’t just good practice—it’s essential in a market where even subtle shifts can greatly impact buying and selling strategies. Whether you’re a Real Estate Professional guiding clients through tough decisions or a homeowner considering a move in the coming months, this report is designed to give you an advantage. In this December 2024 update, we’ll break down what’s been happening, where things might be headed, and how you can use this information to improve your marketing and outreach.

We’ve prepared this market update not only to inform you but to help you create your own tailored messaging for social media posts, newsletters, and client communications. With the insights shared here, you can engage your clients with data-backed confidence and practical advice. Along the way, we’ll highlight key indicators—like our custom “Buyer Score” and “Seller Score”—to show who currently holds more leverage. We’ve also included references to credible industry resources and current data from Freddie Mac, as well as an easy-to-read snapshot of market conditions through charts and tables.

Top 3 Takeaways for december 2024

Inventory Is Slowly Improving, but Still Tight: While there are more properties on the market than last year, it’s far from a buyer’s paradise in most neighborhoods. Some upscale areas remain inventory-constrained.
Prices Are Holding Strong (But Not Spiking): Median prices in sought-after cities like Walnut Creek and Alamo remain high. Across the county, prices are up year-over-year, but growth is more moderate compared to earlier in the year.
Slight Shift Toward Negotiation: Homes are lingering on the market a bit longer—averaging around 27 days compared to 18 days last year. Buyers may have a bit more room to negotiate, but sellers still retain solid leverage, especially in premium locales.

Buyer and Seller Scores

To help both buyers and sellers understand their current position, we use a 0-to-100 scale to measure “Buyer Score” and “Seller Score.” A higher number indicates a more favorable position. We factor in inventory, pricing trends, demand, competition, and overall leverage.

Buyer Score (December 2024): 54
A score of 54 suggests buyers have slightly more breathing room than earlier in the year. While not a full-blown buyer’s market, there are modest improvements in inventory and slightly lengthening market times. Buyers can potentially secure better contingencies, request concessions, and negotiate more favorable terms, especially in mid-priced neighborhoods.
Seller Score (December 2024): 63
At 63, sellers maintain a healthy edge. The market still favors sellers due to sustained demand, limited listings in top-tier areas, and stable prices. Sellers in communities with strong school districts and robust local amenities can still expect multiple offers and strong final sale prices. Strategically priced homes may draw competitive bids, shorter closings, and generally favorable terms.

Market Overview

Current Market Trends:

December traditionally sees a seasonal slowdown, and this year is no different. We’ve observed a slight dip in new listings entering the market as the holidays approach. Still, overall demand remains sturdy. The subtle shift in the average days on market (now around 27 days, up from 18 days last year) indicates that while buyers are interested, they are taking a more cautious approach. In short, it’s a market in delicate balance: still strong for sellers, but no longer running white-hot.

Property Prices:

Average Single-Family Home Price in Contra Costa County (December 2024): Approximately $1,150,000
Monthly Change: Up about 0.5% compared to November 2024
Year-Over-Year Change: Up roughly 5% compared to December 2023

Premium areas like Alamo and Lafayette continue to show median prices above $2.5 million and $1.5 million, respectively, reflecting their ongoing desirability. Meanwhile, more moderately priced areas such as Concord and Antioch show stable median values around $700,000–$800,000. Sales in these more affordable markets have remained consistent, helped by slightly improved inventory and continued appeal to first-time buyers and those looking to upsize without venturing into premium territory.

Inventory Levels:

Active Listings (December 2024): Approximately 1,350 Single-Family Homes
Monthly Change: Down about 10% from November 2024 due to seasonal pullback
Year-Over-Year Change: Up about 8% compared to December 2023, signaling gradual improvement

Despite the slight year-over-year improvement, we’re still below historical inventory averages for Contra Costa County. Luxury segments (e.g., Alamo, Lafayette) remain tight, while areas like Antioch, Brentwood, and Pittsburg show more available inventory, making these regions relatively more attractive for buyers hoping to score a deal.

*(Note: These figures are approximate estimates based on compiled regional data and current market observations. Actual figures may vary slightly.)*

Current Interest Rates and External Factors

As of December 2024, the current 30-year fixed mortgage rate, according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, hovers around 6.5%. This represents a slight improvement from peaks earlier in the year when rates touched 7%. The gentle decline in rates has possibly helped keep demand from slipping too far, despite affordability concerns in higher-priced neighborhoods.

Looking ahead, we anticipate that economic policies and Federal Reserve signals on interest rates could shape buyer and seller behavior in early 2025. If rates remain stable or even dip slightly, buyers could gain more confidence in making offers, and sellers could still achieve healthy valuations.

Neighborhood Highlights

Walnut Creek & Alamo: These upscale communities maintain high median prices, often above $1.5 million and $2.5 million, respectively. Limited listings and consistent buyer demand keep seller leverage strong.
Lafayette & Moraga: Luxury markets remain robust with constrained inventory. While price growth isn’t surging, values remain stable, and properties often sell with favorable terms for the seller. These neighborhoods cater to buyers valuing top schools and a strong community feel.
Antioch & Brentwood: These more affordable areas have experienced better inventory recovery. Buyers can find opportunities here, sometimes negotiating more favorable terms. Brentwood’s sales have picked up compared to last year, reflecting steady demand despite some minor price adjustments.
Berkeley & Castro Valley (just outside the Contra Costa border but influencing East Bay dynamics): Historically lower inventory and higher buyer demand have kept prices elevated. Yet with slight improvements in inventory, these areas may see more balanced conditions heading into 2025.

Outlook for Buyers and Sellers

Buyers:
Though still competitive, the subtle improvements in inventory and days on market could mean more negotiating room. Buyers may consider locking in interest rates now, especially if the Federal Reserve signals stability or slight easing next year. Taking time to conduct thorough inspections and asking for contingencies could yield better overall terms. Look to neighborhoods with more listings or those showing slightly lengthier time on market for the best negotiating power.

Sellers:
If you’re planning to list your property in early 2025, you still hold a favorable hand. The demand is there, and while prices aren’t skyrocketing, they remain stable and strong. Presenting your home at a competitive price point could still draw multiple offers, and well-prepared properties can secure short closing times and favorable contract terms. As inventory inches upward, consider listing earlier in the year to take advantage of current conditions before the market potentially rebalances.

Future Buyer and Seller Scores:

By early 2025, the Buyer Score could tick slightly higher (potentially into the high 50s) if interest rates remain stable and inventory continues to inch up. More active listings would mean increased choices and bargaining power for buyers.
The Seller Score might remain steady or dip a bit if more sellers enter the market, softening the advantage. Nonetheless, expect it to stay comfortably above 50, signifying a relatively balanced but still slightly seller-favored environment.

Year-Over-Year and Month-to-Month Comparisons

Compared to Last Month (November 2024):

Median prices are up modestly (+0.5%).
Listings have dipped by about 10% due to seasonal patterns.
Days on market increased slightly, indicating a cautious buyer mindset heading into the holidays.
Interest rates remained relatively steady around 6.5%, offering a stable environment for buyers considering a purchase.

Compared to Last Year (December 2023):

Median prices have climbed by roughly 5%, showing ongoing strength in property values.
Inventory levels are up about 8% year-over-year, giving buyers a few more options than they had last holiday season.
Days on market have increased from 18 to 27, indicating a subtle shift toward more balanced conditions.
While sellers still hold leverage, the balance has tilted slightly toward buyers compared to a year ago.

What’s Next?

All signs point to a slightly more balanced but still vibrant market as we head into early 2025. Factors to watch include mortgage rates, which, if they fall below 6.5%, could spur another surge in buyer activity. Additionally, broader economic conditions—such as job market strength and consumer sentiment—will influence how buyers and sellers approach the market.

Key Factors to Watch in 2025:

Interest Rate Movements: A 0.5% drop or increase in mortgage rates can significantly impact affordability and buyer enthusiasm.
Inventory Trends: Continued slow improvement in available listings could tip the scale toward a more balanced market.
Local Economic Conditions: Strong employment data and corporate expansion in the East Bay region will support sustained demand, while any economic headwinds could temper buyer confidence.

Leveraging This Content in Your Messaging and Social Media Posts

As a Real Estate Professional working with Pacific Residential Partners, you can use these findings to craft timely, relevant messages that connect with your audience. Here are three content ideas to share with your clients and prospects, reflecting the current data and market conditions:

“Stable Prices and More Choices: Good News for Buyers”
Messaging: “If you’ve been on the fence about buying, now’s the time to look closely. Inventory’s up from last year, and homes are staying on the market a bit longer. With interest rates around 6.5%, buyers can negotiate better terms without facing last year’s intense competition.”
“Sellers Still in Control, but Early 2025 Could Bring Change”
Messaging: “Sellers remain in a good position, especially in popular neighborhoods. However, with inventory creeping upward, listing early in the year might give you the best shot at maximizing value before more competition enters the picture.”
“Watch Those Interest Rates and Neighborhood Trends”
Messaging: “Interest rates have steadied, and certain areas are seeing more listings. Whether you’re looking to buy or sell, keeping an eye on rates and local market stats can give you the edge. Let’s talk strategy so you can move confidently in this shifting landscape.”

These messages highlight tangible benefits, timely insights, and a call to action, encouraging potential buyers and sellers to lean on your expertise and the backing of Pacific Residential Partners.

The December 2024 Contra Costa County real estate market shows signs of gradual easing while maintaining overall robustness. Sellers continue to benefit from strong demand and solid prices, though buyers find themselves with a bit more leverage than last year. The slight uptick in days on market, modest inventory gains, and stable interest rates have created an environment where both parties can succeed with the right approach.

Real Estate Professionals, backed by Pacific Residential Partners, have a clear opportunity to guide clients through these nuances, turning market intelligence into actionable plans. With buyers watching interest rates and sellers eyeing inventory levels, it’s never been more crucial to stay informed and use reliable data to shape strategy.

For more information, consider referencing sources like Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, local listing databases, and trusted economic forecasts. By doing so, you’ll be well-positioned to navigate 2025’s market, regardless of whether conditions lean slightly toward buyers, sellers, or somewhere comfortably in between.

If you have questions about the numbers, need assistance with your buying or selling strategy, or simply want to ensure you’re well-prepared for the coming market shifts, reach out to Realty One Team. We’re here to provide the guidance you need to make the most of this dynamic real estate landscape.

Contra Costa County Real Estate Insights – December 2024

Top 3 Takeaways for december 2024

Buyer and Seller Scores